Horse Racing Handicapping

In American racing, “handicapping” usually means studying a race to decide which horses have the best chance and which bets offer value. It’s the work horseplayers do with the past performances (the PPs) before they bet.

The word has a second meaning that causes some confusion. A handicap race is a race where the track’s racing secretary assigns each horse a weight to carry, so that, in theory, every runner has an equal chance. Our guide to what a handicap horse race is covers that side. This hub is about the first meaning: handicapping as a skill.

This page gives you the overview and points to our detailed guides on each part of it.

What handicappers look at

Every handicapper has a method, but most weigh the same handful of factors:

• Speed. How fast a horse has run, usually expressed as a speed figure that adjusts the final time for the track and distance. Andrew Beyer’s figures have appeared in the Daily Racing Form’s past performances since 1992. Brisnet and TimeformUS publish their own.
• Pace. How the early fractions are likely to unfold, and which horses are suited to the race shape.
• Class. The level of races a horse has been competitive in, from maiden claimers to graded stakes.
• Form. Whether the horse is improving, holding or tailing off, judged from recent races and workouts.
• Conditions. Surface (dirt, turf or synthetic), distance, track condition and post position.
• Connections. Trainer and jockey statistics, including how a trainer does with a particular move such as first time off a layoff.
• Price. Whether the odds on offer are bigger than the horse’s real chance. A good horse at a short price can still be a bad bet.

Our step-by-step guide on how to handicap horses works through each one with a sample routine.

Two ways to approach it

Do it yourself. You read the PPs, make your own assessment and, ideally, your own odds line. It takes time to learn, but you control every decision and you learn why a bet won or lost.

Use someone else’s work. Public handicappers at racetracks and racing media publish selections, and paid services sell picks and systems. That saves time, but you need to judge the source before you trust it. See our guides to the best horse racing handicappers and free horse racing handicapping picks for how to check a record.

Most players end up somewhere in between: they read other people’s analysis, then make the final call themselves.

Our handicapping guides

• How to handicap horses: the factors above, in the order we’d use them, with how to make an odds line.
• Best horse racing handicappers: how to judge a handicapper’s public record before you follow one.
• Free horse racing handicapping picks: where free US picks are published and how to use them.
• Horse racing handicapping software: past performance products and handicapping software for US racing.
• Horse racing handicapping systems: what a system is, how to test one and what to expect.
• Horse racing handicapping books: the classic books on speed, pace and trip handicapping.
• How to bet a trifecta: turning your handicapping into exotic bets.

Betting UK and Irish racing as well? The UK versions of these guides cover horse racing software, horse racing systems and tipsters.

Handicapping tournaments

Handicapping contests let you test your picks against other players for a fixed entry fee, with prizes for the best bankroll at the end. The National Horseplayers Championship (NHC), run by the NTRA, is the best known: players qualify through a year-long tour of sanctioned contests at racetracks and online sites, and you can’t buy a place in the final. HorseTourneys and HorsePlayers are two of the online sites that run qualifiers and other contests.

Tools for checking the numbers

US racing is mostly pari-mutuel: your payout depends on the pool and the track’s takeout, not on fixed odds agreed when you bet. Our calculators are built for fixed-odds betting, but two of them are still useful to a handicapper:

• The odds converter turns morning line or tote odds such as 5-2 into decimal and American odds.
• The odds calculator shows the implied probability behind any price, which is the number to compare with your own odds line.

A paid option for US players

If you’d rather learn a single method from someone who sells one, HorsePlayerHaven is a North American handicapping course. Read our handicapping systems guide first so you know how to judge any system before paying for it.

Betting always carries a risk of loss and no tipster, system or staking plan can guarantee a profit. Only stake what you can afford to lose, and set a budget before you start. Gambling responsibly.